Second discussion subject - Brexit

You bravely chose this as the subject. We all know it's an amalgam of British and Exit but what do you think about Britain deciding to leave the EU? Should France leave the EU? Is a divided Europe a weaker place? Is the EU an undemocratic bunch of bureaucrats ruining the lives of the citizens which it doesn't listen to? What do you think the short and long term consequences will be? Are you happy to pay more money into the EU to make up for what Britain will no longer pay? I'm sure there are many other questions you could try to answer so over to you...

Hi everyone!

At first, I wanted to avoid this topic. But it’s democracy!
I didn’t follow this debate, and it was during summer break!
I know that Cameron resigned his position, and that shocked me. He was the face of UK policy.
Then, I know that 72% of the electorate had gone to the polls, 52% of whom had voted in Brexit favour. That’s not a subject who passionate me.. Moreover, we don’t know anything about economic repercussions, just that the pound sterling decreased insanely. I’m waiting for numbers to deliver my opinion. And exit discussions don’t officially started.
I don’t think that France must leave the European Union because we put so much energy and resources in this union, it woud not make sense! And, United Kingdom wasn’t deeply involved in the European Union.
In addition, Scotland tries to be independent. I think that the UK is now disunited. Because it’s United Kingdom, Scotland and North Ireland are involved in Brexit whereas they don’t want to leave the EU..
I’m waiting for your opinion to understand and maybe have a position about the subject. Today I think that I’m against Brexit but your arguments may convince me!

See you!

Hello !

I don't know if Brexit is a mistake or an opportunity to the United Kingdom.
I think, there are lot of point of view about the Brexit and we should wait 2 or 3 years to know if it's good or bad. It's difficult to predict the future.

Lots of politician and economist are debating about this subject.
Some economist are in favour and explain their point of view :
- Not contribute to the european budget.
- limit the immigration
- Not follow the rules set by the european government in Brussels.
On the contrary, some economist are against this changement and their opinion are :
- Immigration allow to earn money because immigrants give more money than receive.
- Européan union is the first economic partners to the United Kingdom
- The problem in Scotland which could lead to tensions.

I think that European Union is not enough strong. I would like to be like United States. The Unique money can't work without a real european government. To have the same monetary policy for all country in the European Union should be follow to the same budgetary policy. Today, it's not the situation and it's a problem for the future.

If United kingdom decided to leave the European Union, there are problems. We should found solution to avoid that other countries leave the European Union.

Goodbye !!

Hey everybody,
i think the topic of this week is a good topic for us to discuss, because the political change always affect the economic, and as an economic student, we should have the capability to analyse the influence of economic behind the political change, and today, i want to especially talk about the influence to Chinese economic of Brexit:

1.After the Brexit, the EU-China cooperation strategy will be more difficult
Since the US develop strategies to return to Asia and the Pacific, China is facing a sharp increase pressure in the surrounding environment,it's urgent to find new partners to ease the political pressure imposed by the US and Japan. In the same situation as China, the EU suffered from too much interference by the US who reduce its autonomy in international trade, so that the EU has become China's strategic partner to defend the pressure of the US, and the United Kingdom is the key for China to open the door of EU. The commerce trade between China and Britain has become more frequent since the last year and create more and more economic interests in common. But after the Brexit, the UK broke the intangible cooperation link between China and the EU.

2.After the Brexit, the UK lost large number of trade and investment from Chinese enterprises
Many Chinese companies have established branches or even headquartersin the United Kingdom, hoping to get the preferential tariff policies of other EU countries through the British and EU. And now, Chinese companies may consider moving their European headquarters elsewhere.

Feng Luzhu wrote:Hey everybody,
i think the topic of this week is a good topic for us to discuss, because the political change always affect the economic, and as an economic student, we should have the capability to analyse the influence of economic behind the political change, and today, i want to especially talk about the influence to Chinese economic of Brexit:

1.After the Brexit, the EU-China cooperation strategy will be more difficult
 Since the US  develop strategies to return to Asia and the Pacific, China is facing a sharp increase pressure in the surrounding environment,it's   urgent to find new partners to ease the political pressure imposed by the US and Japan. In the same situation as China, the EU suffered from too much interference by the US who reduce its autonomy in international trade, so that the EU has become China's strategic partner to defend the pressure of the US, and the United Kingdom is the key for China to open the door of EU. The commerce trade between China and Britain has become more frequent since the last year and create more and more economic interests in common. But after the Brexit, the UK broke the intangible cooperation link between China and the EU.

2.After the Brexit, the UK lost large number of trade and investment from Chinese enterprises
 Many Chinese companies have established branches or even headquartersin the United Kingdom, hoping to get the preferential tariff policies of other EU countries through the British and EU. And now, Chinese companies may consider moving their European headquarters elsewhere.

I like your analysis.

But is it possible that China actually now find it easier to arrange trade partnerships with the UK as neither have to follow the restrictions that the EU put in place. This could in turn proliferate trade between the 2 countries.

I'm aware that many asian countries have used England as a "backdoor" into Europe which may now close but the EU will also be a little less interesting to these countries as the UK is a major market. The EU without the UK is not the same market. I don't know how interested China are in deals with Romania for example.

Admin wrote:

Feng Luzhu wrote:Hey everybody,
i think the topic of this week is a good topic for us to discuss, because the political change always affect the economic, and as an economic student, we should have the capability to analyse the influence of economic behind the political change, and today, i want to especially talk about the influence to Chinese economic of Brexit:

1.After the Brexit, the EU-China cooperation strategy will be more difficult
 Since the US  develop strategies to return to Asia and the Pacific, China is facing a sharp increase pressure in the surrounding environment,it's   urgent to find new partners to ease the political pressure imposed by the US and Japan. In the same situation as China, the EU suffered from too much interference by the US who reduce its autonomy in international trade, so that the EU has become China's strategic partner to defend the pressure of the US, and the United Kingdom is the key for China to open the door of EU. The commerce trade between China and Britain has become more frequent since the last year and create more and more economic interests in common. But after the Brexit, the UK broke the intangible cooperation link between China and the EU.

2.After the Brexit, the UK lost large number of trade and investment from Chinese enterprises
 Many Chinese companies have established branches or even headquartersin the United Kingdom, hoping to get the preferential tariff policies of other EU countries through the British and EU. And now, Chinese companies may consider moving their European headquarters elsewhere.

I like your analysis.

But is it possible that China actually now find it easier to arrange trade partnerships with the UK as neither have to follow the restrictions that the EU put in place. This could in turn proliferate trade between the 2 countries.

I'm aware that many asian countries have used England as a "backdoor" into Europe which may now close but the EU will also be a little less interesting to these countries as the UK is a major market. The EU without the UK is not the same market. I don't know how interested China are in deals with Romania for example.

Hi,John
Yes, you're right, after that, Britain can be freed from the EU's many commerce restrictions, and to enhance the flexibility of its own policies, it's good for UK and China in a background of free trade，and the relationship between the two countries may be more closely.

But in the next two years, China will pay more attention to the trade arrangements between Britain and the EU, and adjust the strategy of China-EU cooperation in time. The most important strategy that i think is strengthening economic and trade cooperation with Germany and the other countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which can expand the channel for China into EU.

good evening everbody

As we all know, when the European Union established, the UK was in a special situation that he did'nt use the euro like the other countries in EU. From then on, the UK was always keeping the difference with others. Recently, the UK declared that he divorced from the EU. Maybe because that the gap between the rich and the poor is too large in EU, and this group is not stabilized. Or the UK wants to avoid too many imigrants who leave from EU countries.

In fact, after Brexit, the exchange rate has reduced, and the foreign investment will be increased, as well as the foreign students. So Brexit will stimulate the UK's export trade, and improve the competitiveness of the UK's companies. By the way, i think that the depreciation of pound can not continue for a long time, because it's result in the change of policy not the UK's economic strength.

Then, as the key contry of the EU, the UK has not changed his trade policy after Brexit. The negotiation for the UK and EU will be really thorny. And the free trade is the economic trend, as a large partner of the EU, the UK shouldn't set up a barrier to limit himself. I think the free trade is the best policy between UK and EU.

Finally, if the decision is favorable to UK, the more and more countries will imitate. On the contrary, the UK will search for the solution to remedy. I hope that the UK will be fine.

Hello everyone,
I was really surprise when the people of UK said no to europe. I thought that they could stay with us and it's a big mistake to leave. Because nobody knows how to do it. Countries can enter in the union but there's no procedure to leave. Of course you can leave if you want to, but no one thought it could happen.
Cameron shoot himself by arranging a referendum. And I'm afraid that Theresa May is crazier than him...

I was also surprised to see UK say no to Europe. The UK did have quite a privileged place in the Europe.
I knew that wanting to quit Europe was the overall feeling at time, I just didn't think it would get to the actually saying no point.

Anyway what is done is done; and I believe that only future beholds the truth. I do not know whether the outcome of this decision is going to be positive of negative.
I don't think the UK is going to suffer an awfull amount though;

I think it could affect the United Kindgom so called cohesion, like Ivan said. But it is a "so-called cohesion".
My main concern is Europe's reaction once the UK leaves for good. I'm scared the might "stab us in the back" economically, and politically.
UK leaving Europe does underline some fundamental problems with Europe, and could push other countries to do the same thing.

On my behalf, anyway, I need to start thinking about getting my French nationality; as well as many over residents in France. Not having it could have a direct impact on my life here.

Hi !
first of all I want to say that I have not really followed the brexit. I was also very surprised that the united kingdom leaves Europe for 2019. I believe that the process begins in March 2017 and tough 2 years for this end up before the European elections. Just like you Ivan I was shocked of the resignation of David Cameron.

The Brexit shows the rising uncertainty of the countries of the European Union to this European system. From what I understand, the economy of the united kingdom may be affected negatively at the start. We can already see the considerable drop of the pound sterling. Hoping the brexit does not make explode the european system.

Hi,
Just as Ivan, I don't know much on that topic and it don't really interess me. I don't have convictions about that. I can't say if I'm pro Brexit or not. Because of the Brexit, the pound sterling decreased, so french exportations are more expensive. That's a problem in the way that England is our 5th products buyer so it will impact us naturally. For some french firms, it can impact their revenu.
However, maybe that some french firms based is England will come back to France to establish themselves.

The Brexit could be a good thing for the European Union firms in terms of competition. I think that futures will tell us better than I do.

Hello everyone,

The last June 23th 2016, British voted for Brexit, but what has happened since this referendum ?

The last Prime Minister Mr Cameron who was against Brintain leaving the European Union, take the personal step to resign from the government. Today the Prime minister is Theresa May, she is also against the referendum. Therefore she explains that she respect the decision by the Bristish, she has said “Brexit means Brexit”. Moreover there is different economics effect of leaving EU, the value of the pound remains near a 30-year low. Some major firms such as Easyjet and John Lewis have pointed out that the slump in sterling has increased their costs.
To implement the terms of the referendum, there is an agreement called Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which gives two years to take UK out of the EU. Theresa May has confirmed the UK will be expected to have left by the summer of 2019.

The creation of the European Union was synonymous with peace, it began after World War Two to foster economic co-operation, with the idea that countries which trade together are more likely to avoid going to war with each other. So for me the fact that some countries want leave the EU is a great pity, because it make life together more complicated if we can’t travel and exchange products between countries.

Bye

Brexit: a real democratic decision?

The recent demonstrations pro-EU shows the displeasure of one part of the Great Britain’s society. I observed that young people are in the majority in these demonstrations. So I think that one part of the Britain’s Society broke the future of another part. In fact the youth vote massively for the remain. According to a survey, sixty-four per cent of the 18-24 years-old people vote for the remain against twenty-four per cent for the leave. So it exists a youth pro-Europe and an old people cons-EU. But this vote will impact the future and not really the present. However this is the younger generation which will be impacted strongly by this decision and not the older generation. So I think that vote isn’t a real democratic decision. Even if the abstention rate is high, I continue to think that is not a democratic way.

Moreover I would to talk about the eunuchs who are Boris Johnson and Mickael Farrage. These “men” run the Brexit campaign without pocessing knowledges about EU. For example Boris Johnson, the current minister of foreign affairs, doesn’t know the name of the president of the European parliament. That’s insane not knowing this information !!! Now speak about Mickael Farrage, he isn’t a minister due to he political retired. When the leave wins he decided to stop his political activity. He is a coward. These men promising to increase the social security spending thanks to the end of the payments from GB to EU. But some hours after the victory of leave, these men said that promise is impossible to held … They misled Britain’s and lied. Is it democratic ? I don’t think so.

Bye !

Hi!

Brexit is a failure for the EU! Great Britain was part of the three economic engines of EU with Germany and France that's why this event is a hard blow for EU. Nevertheless, the British economics seems to resist at the short term even if stock markets decreased after the referendum. One solution for EU, will be to renogociate a new trade agreement with UK to be credible for the rest of the world.
Except economics considerations, this vote follow a cotempory trend in the occidental world witch is to reject "foreigners" and to adopt an individualistic vision. In my opinion, this aspect is the most worrying!

What's up evrybody

Hope u have an amazing day because I have an amazing day!


To be honnest, I don't follow too this topic during this summer! So i'm gonna focus on one aspect: The effect of Brexit on brtitish consumers.
The prices of some product are rising as a result of the fall of the pound.
Since the victory of "leave", in June 23 the price of a large number of products increased.According to calculations of price comparator Mysupermarket, the third online supermarket of the kingdom, the average ticket for a weekly shift at the supermarket has risen by 1% in July. Basic products such as pasta (10%), onions (+ 9%) and canned sauces (+ 6%) and are more expensive this summer.
The weakness of the pound, which hit its lowest level in a month Tuesday, at 85.66 pence per 1 euro, may mechanically imports more expensive. Now the UK brought from abroad more than half of the food it consumes. This observation is beyond the food sector.
Some big companies like PSA (Peugeot Citroen) increased the prices of their vehicles in the UK since 1 August to adapt to fluctuating exchange. The auto supplier Continental has already imitated PSA. Other sectors are concerned. Smartphone OnePlus or HTC's virtual reality helmets have also seen their prices go up by 6% and 10%. Others, such as computer makers Dell and Asustek, the specialist flooring Headlam or toilet paper manufacturer Svenska Cellulosa and layers are preparing to do the same. All justify this decision by the weakening of the pound.
Those who do not complain about the situation, however, are foreign tourists who flock to the UK to take advantage of favorable exchange rates. Booking flights to the UK were up 4% in the months that followed the referendum compared to the same period last year, according Forwardkeys, which analyzes purchasing airline tickets worldwide.

Good evening,
I have followed this debate between leaving or not Europe because it’s important for the future of Europe and for us too. I don’t support Brexit because I think there are more negative consequences than positive.
First, its negatif for the GPD because exchanges with European countries will be more difficult. In Europe there is free circulation, so this could affected Britain’s economy because the main partners of Britain are in the European Union. Companies need an unrestricted access to a market to continue to compete and invest so Brexit isn’t unproductive and blocks competitiveness.The wage and the living standards of the population will be affected too.
Then, for us it will be more difficult to go to Great Britain and exchange like Erasmus or university exchange will be less important.
There will be high volatility in the financial markets so there would be a problem of trust and therefore a flight of capital. High unemployment is also a threat for about 3 million jobs because there are linked to the European Union.
Britain made a mistake by leaving the EU, because its influence will be weakened on the world stage. It will participate in major decisions less than if it was to remain in Europe. Then, it can’t participate to the UE budget.
Moreover, immigration will be more difficult but this aspect bring back money to Britain. And, concerning the jungle in Calais, France doesn’t want to make an effort to stop migrants.
The young generation fears for his future because retreat into a context that requires open and exchange can be dangerous for their future.
To finish, Scotland seems away from the UK’s ideas because the major part of Scots are pro-European. So what is the future of UK? Without or within Scotland?
I think Europe must stay strong without Britain. Strong actors like Germany and France must be the motors of the future Europe.

See you tomorrow

Hi everybody,

I’m not really concerned about the english decision, they voted and the majority won. Now that’s their problem. But personally I do not think it’s a good idea for them because they lost the european economic support especially. Although the english have never done anything like european (money, right hand drive, a queen ??? ). I’m not afraid about an prospective domino effect, we knew the english willingness since many years. I do not think a divide in Europe because only extremist parties of other countries would leave Europe and they are in minority now. Maybe today we don’t see negatives economics effects but in long terms we will see them. We need to wait several years and we will be able to say what were the effects.

Hi everybody,

When i heard that the UK decided to leave the UE, I was very surprise. Because UK is a founding country of the UE. I don't really know the big reason(s) of that decision but i think it's a bad decision for us, a big mistake. They lost lots of opportunities that the UE give to all members.
For the moment, we don't really see differences and what done this Brexit. In long term that will give results and we can really say if it was positif or negative to the UK. This Brexit will take 2 or 3 years (i don't really remember), so that let them time to prepare the next years to live without UE. Let time take its course ... .

Good evening everybody,
Like some of you, I was not really interesting by the brexit. It was during the summer and I had others preoccuations   but to be serious, this vote's result suprised me. On the other hand, when you think deeper, english seemed very septic about UE begining by their money, not euro like others countries but the pound. So, from an objective point of view, it's not such a surprise, but i'm not judging them, this is their decision, their responsabilities..
What I notice in particular from the debate is that the pound will decrease and europeans will not go in England as easily as today (is there a link with migrants ???)
For the repercussions negative or positives we just have to wait and see like they usually say
See you

Hi!
I'm not very interesting about Brexit but i will try to say that i think.  
So i think Brexit was a surprise for many of us cause in France just a little part of the inhabitant want to leave Europe. I think that will be very bad for our continent cause Europe was created to avoid some war between the major country and no one before brexit want to leave this union.
The economy of Great Britain will be very impacted by the brexit cause the pound make a several decrease. They got many trade agreement with rest of the Europe and they could be broken with this decision.
But we need time to conclude on Brexit cause the process to leave Europe wasn't created before so they need to negociate many of thing.
So we need to be patietn but i think that will be bad for England and Europe.

Hi everybody,
The goal of a group is to work and stay together, so from that perspective, Brexit is a failure for EU, and mostly if you add the fact that UK was one of the leaders economic wise. Speaking about economy I don't know if both side will make it out but I have no doubt that it will not be possible without scratch. I am also interested by the fate of european peaple in UK right now, they will need residence permit and other stuffs like that and what about the relation between UK and Europe, about commercials items for example.

Hi !
Sincerly I wasn't surprised about the decision from the UK to leave the EU. After all, each time Europ have to take a decision, UK wasn't agree so I think this leaving is natural. But I don't know if it's a good idea. Without EU, UK can appply the politic they want but lost many advantages. For exemple, exchanges are aid inside the EU. Many england company have their big client because of this ease. It can be a big lost for them.
For the moment, it's to recent for say if it's a good or bad decision. It depend how UK planned to organize this leaving.

Hi everybody !
I’m also surprised when UK leaves the EU. I don’t will talk about the economic impact of the Brexit on UK and the rest of EU because I think we need more time to get the data.
On the other hand I think we can talk about the politics repercussions. UK is the first country to leave the EU, but will this be the one? We can asks on the real efficiency of the EU and other country can want also leaves this. For example a lot of people begin to say a “Frexit” and want the France will also leave the EU because UK seems good.
But I think they have a real difference between UK and France: their money. We can ask if EU was really useful for UK because they haven’t used euro, but France is more integrated in EU and use the unique money. For me euro has many advantage for France, if we people decided to leave the EU (but I don’t think will be), this will have be more repercussion on our economy.
But if I think EU is a good things, it’s can be more efficiency. We have a unique monetary policy, but they have many different budgetary policy and I think is a problem. I’m agree with Jeremy Doyen and I think we must go further in integration, like United states, why not with an European government (more efficiency as our actual parliament).

Gourbeau Iolina wrote:Good evening,
I have followed this debate between leaving or not Europe because it’s important for the future of Europe and for us too. I don’t support Brexit because I think there are more negative consequences than positive.
First, its negatif for the GPD because exchanges with European countries will be more difficult. In Europe there is free circulation, so this could affected Britain’s economy because the main partners of Britain are in the European Union. Companies need an unrestricted access to a market to continue to compete and invest so Brexit isn’t unproductive and blocks competitiveness.The wage and the living standards of the population will be affected too.
Then, for us it will be more difficult to go to Great Britain and exchange like Erasmus or university exchange will be less important.
There will be high volatility in the financial markets so there would be a problem of trust and therefore a flight of capital. High unemployment is also a threat for about 3 million jobs because there are linked to the European Union.
Britain made a mistake by leaving the EU, because its influence will be weakened on the world stage. It will participate in major decisions less than if it was to remain in Europe. Then, it can’t participate to the UE budget.
Moreover, immigration will be more difficult but this aspect bring back money to Britain. And, concerning the jungle in Calais, France doesn’t want to make an effort to stop migrants.
The young generation fears for his future because retreat into a context that requires open and exchange can be dangerous for their future.
To finish, Scotland seems away from the UK’s ideas because the major part of Scots are pro-European. So what is the future of UK? Without or within Scotland?
I think Europe must stay strong without Britain. Strong actors like Germany and France must be the motors of the future Europe.

See you tomorrow

A well thought out response.

The English believe that the institution of the EU is failing its people and its mandate. They think that the bureaucrats have taken over the asylum. Many think that without reform the EU is doomed so maybe leaving now will force the EU to reform or it will give Britain a head start in negotiations for when the EU fails and falls apart.

This may hurt Britain but at least the British will have control of their fate and preside over their own downfall. Many believe that england the 5th/6th biggest economy in the world is strong enough to stand alone and don't wish to become a federalised Europe led by the Germans.

Scotland had its chance to leave Great Britain, the people didn't want to. Now maybe the SNP politicians don't want to be a part of Great Britain but with the collapse of the oil market Scotland would become a very poor country outside Great Britain. Its departure would economically make England stronger and europe weaker.

All that you say may come about but at least the British will go down in their own right. Will the French be happy to increase its payments into the EU whilst the farmers and others have to receive less than before? GB is a net contributor, second only to Germany. Are the French happy to see more "poor" immigrants enter their country? Will the EU even exist in a generation's time?

Long live the Lion!